14.10.2026 Analytics #World #Import #Export #Statistics #Duties

AI buildout speeds up global goods trade, DHL Globalization Tracker finds

Global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. That is the headline finding of the latest DHL Globalization Tracker, which DHL and NYU Stern released on October 7, 2026. The report names demand for AI infrastructure goods as one of the major drivers, and its globalization index (on a 0–100% scale) reached a record 25.8% in 2025.

The report was authored by Prof. Steven A. Altman, Director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern, and Caroline R. Bastian of NYU Stern, and commissioned by DHL. It draws on more than 30 million data points from over 25 sources and is the first edition under the new name; it was previously the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker.

US tariffs and Hormuz: effects stayed contained

According to the report, the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted important trade routes, but the effects remained concentrated in economies dependent on the Strait: the value of trade in Saudi Arabia in the first five months of 2026 fell by 37%, and in the UAE by 7%, compared with the same period of 2025.

The authors note that US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. The US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, and roughly half of US imports were exempt from the increases as of August 2026. Most countries refrained from broad retaliation, and many worked to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements.

The US–China share of world trade fell from 3.5% at its 2015 peak to 1.6% in the first five months of 2026, and their share of international business investment is under 1%. The authors see no split of the world economy into blocs: close US allies have largely maintained their ties with China.

Which goods are driving trade growth

AI infrastructure goods include, for example, semiconductors and data-transmission equipment. According to WTO and OECD analysis, trade in such goods accounted for:

John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express: "The biggest story in global trade right now is AI – not tariffs."

By region, the value of trade in the first five months of 2026 versus the same period of 2025 rose by 24% in East Asia and the Pacific, 12% in Europe and 11% in Sub-Saharan Africa. In East Asia and the Pacific, the share of trade staying within the region increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026, partly on the back of Asian supply chains serving the AI boom.

Outlook through 2029: 3.4% a year versus 2.7% over the past decade

The report projects global goods trade will grow by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029, against 2.7% over the previous decade. Current forecasts are more optimistic than those made before the 2025–26 US tariff increases and the Iran war. Steven Altman: "The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock."

The report authors' position for business

For business leaders, the report recommends preparing for disruptions without giving up the advantages of international engagement: specific economies, industries or trade routes can still face significant risks, but overall global flows remain strong. In the authors' view, decisions such as relocating production should balance supply-chain resilience with the benefits of market access, and companies that pull back from international markets while competitors stay globally active may risk weakening their competitive position.

Primary sources

This material is for information only and does not constitute legal advice or customs consulting. Verify changes against the primary sources before acting.