03.09.2026 Analytics #EAEU #Export #Trade agreements #Statistics

EEC estimates new EAEU trade deals will add over 300,000 jobs

On August 31, 2026, at the "Motherland Is People. Building Greater Eurasia" forum at the Russia National Center in Moscow, Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) Trade Minister Andrey Slepnev presented the commission's estimates of the effect of the Eurasian Economic Union's (EAEU) new trade agreements. According to him, the agreements with Mongolia, the UAE and Indonesia, together with the negotiating track with India, could collectively generate more than 300,000 additional jobs (eec.eaeunion.org).

The EEC's projected impact by agreement

Per the commission's calculations, the agreements with Mongolia, the UAE and Indonesia combined could add roughly $12 billion in trade supplies and create about 160,000 jobs. The India track, per the same EEC estimate, could add a further $10 billion in supplies and about 180,000 "high-productivity" jobs (eec.eaeunion.org). These are the EEC's expected, not statistically confirmed, figures — the commission frames them as a forecast of the effect from agreements that are entering into force or still under negotiation.

A structural shift in EAEU trade

Slepnev also cited a broader reorientation: in 2019, Western countries accounted for 60% of the EAEU's foreign trade; today that share is below 20%. Over the same period, the Global South's share rose from 40% to 80% (eec.eaeunion.org).

Where each agreement actually stands

Several of the tracks mentioned have already passed signing or entry-into-force milestones:

EAEU–UAE. The Economic Partnership Agreement was signed on June 27, 2025. EEC Board Decision No. 113 of August 25, 2026 approved a list of goods subject to an increased duty rate or the EAEU Common Customs Tariff rate (whichever is lower) instead of the default zero duty; the decision takes effect together with the agreement itself, but not earlier than 30 calendar days after official publication (alta.ru). Importers from the UAE need to check their goods against this list — the default zero rate does not apply to items on it.
EAEU–Mongolia. The interim trade agreement was signed on June 27, 2025, in Minsk on the sidelines of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, and entered into force on July 22, 2026. It runs for three years with an option for automatic renewal for another three-year term and covers 367 tariff subheadings with eliminated or reduced duties for each side (eec.eaeunion.org).
EAEU–Indonesia. The free trade agreement was signed on December 21, 2025, in St. Petersburg at a Supreme Eurasian Economic Council session. Indonesia's average tariff on EAEU goods is set to fall five-fold — from 10.2% to 2% — with preferences covering 90% of Indonesia's tariff nomenclature and 90.5% of the EAEU's (eec.eaeunion.org). The document still needs ratification in all member states before taking effect, so exporters shouldn't yet plan logistics around the new rates.
EAEU–India. Free trade zone talks continue: the second round was held June 22–25, 2026, in Moscow at EEC headquarters (alta.ru). No agreement has been signed yet, so the $10 billion and 180,000-job figures cited by the EEC describe the effect of a still-hypothetical future deal.

In practice, traders dealing with these markets should verify the current status of each specific agreement (signed / in force / under ratification), check exclusion lists such as Decision No. 113, and prepare certificates of origin in advance to claim preferential rates once an agreement applies.

September brings regional forum and EAEU–Mongolia committee

September 2026 is set to bring the second Regional Forum and the first meeting of the EAEU–Mongolia joint committee (eec.eaeunion.org), where the parties are likely to discuss implementation of the already-effective interim agreement.

Primary sources

This material is for information only and does not constitute legal advice or customs consulting. Verify changes against the primary sources before acting.