04.08.2026 Analytics #Russia #Export #Statistics
Russia's July grain exports plunge 37.6% amid Black Sea attacks
Russian grain exports took a sharp hit in July 2026: according to the Russian Grain Union (RGU), whose figures were cited by its director of analytics, Elena Tyurina, in an interview with Interfax, shipments of major grain crops totaled 2.026 million tonnes — down 37.6 percent year on year. Wheat exports came to 1.8 million tonnes, a 17.7 percent drop from July 2025 (alta.ru). RGU attributed the decline primarily to "tension in the Azov-Black Sea region," which escalated after a drone attack damaged infrastructure at the port of Taman.
How shipments fell through the month
The decline accelerated as the month progressed. Average daily grain shipments in July stood at 65,400 tonnes, versus 104,800 tonnes a year earlier, while daily wheat shipments fell to 57,400 tonnes from 69,700 tonnes. The steepest drop came in the third ten-day period of July, when total grain shipments fell 61.3 percent to 685,000 tonnes and wheat shipments fell 55.5 percent to 646,500 tonnes (alta.ru).
Corn and barley were hit hardest: corn exports fell to 146,300 tonnes from 521,400 tonnes a year earlier, and barley to 101,400 tonnes from 567,000 tonnes (alta.ru). Analytics firm SovEcon flagged a similar trend ahead of the final data: on July 20 it cut its July wheat export forecast to 1.5 million tonnes, citing restrictions on navigation through the Kerch Strait and weak demand from Egypt and Turkey, noting that such a volume would make July 2026 the lowest for the month since 2017, when Russia shipped 1.4 million tonnes (Interfax).
Prices and the competitiveness of Russian wheat
Tighter export supply did not translate into higher prices for Russian grain. As of August 1, Russian wheat on an FOB Novorossiysk basis was quoted at $232 per tonne, essentially flat for the month. Meanwhile global benchmarks rose: European wheat gained 12.7 percent to $267 per tonne, and US wheat gained 14.3 percent to $272 per tonne. As a result, the discount of Russian wheat to European wheat widened to $35 per tonne (alta.ru).
Domestic prices moved in the opposite direction: producer prices for grade-4 wheat fell 5 percent over the month, from 14,220 to 13,500 rubles per tonne between July 1 and August 1 (alta.ru).
What market participants say about the causes and risks
Tyurina noted that the year-on-year picture looks different: compared with prices on August 1 of the previous season, European wheat is now 15 percent more expensive, US wheat 26 percent more expensive, while Russian wheat is 3.7 percent cheaper (alta.ru). "At the moment, Russian wheat has a good price advantage relative to offer prices in Europe, but geopolitical problems are constraining shipments, which could lead to a decline in exports for the season as a whole," she told Interfax. SovEcon, for its part, linked the July shipment slump to restrictions on navigation through the Kerch Strait and weak demand from Egypt and Turkey (Interfax). The RGU material does not include any comment from the Agriculture Ministry or other authorities on the situation at the port of Taman.
Primary sources
- Экспорт зерна из РФ в июле 2026: данные Российского зернового союза (Интерфакс)
- СовЭкон снизил прогноз экспорта пшеницы в июле 2026 до 1,5 млн тонн
This material is for information only and does not constitute legal advice or customs consulting. Verify changes against the primary sources before acting.