12.10.2026 Analytics #World #Import #Export #Statistics

WTO lifts 2026 goods trade forecast to 3.9% as value outpaces volume

In its "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics" report, released on 8 October, the WTO sharply raised its 2026 forecast for world merchandise trade volume growth to 3.9%, up from 1.9% in March. It expects 4.1% growth in 2027. The forecast for commercial services was cut to 3.3% from 4.8%, with 6.4% expected in 2027.

What is pushing trade up and down

The main driver of the revision is investment in artificial intelligence. AI-enabling goods such as semiconductors and servers accounted for 47% of global merchandise trade growth in value terms in the first half of 2026. Trade in these products rose 67% year on year, according to the WTO press release. Their share of world merchandise trade reached 14.8% in the first half of 2026, against 7-8% in 2016-2023 (executive summary).

The second factor is how supply chains adapted to the Middle East conflict. Crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by roughly 24% in the first half and LNG exports by 47%. Increased shipments from other suppliers limited the decline in global exports to about 6% for crude oil and just 1% for LNG (WTO).

Why value is outrunning volume

The current US dollar value of world merchandise trade rose 15% year on year in the first half, against 3.5% growth in volume. The WTO attributes the gap to higher prices for fuels and for electronic components used in data centres (executive summary).

Concentration and the US-China split

Trade in AI-enabling goods is about twice as geographically concentrated as total merchandise trade, and the concentration is rising. In 2025 the top 10 traders accounted for around 85% of world exports and 80% of imports of these goods (executive summary). The same document says US-China trade decoupling has accelerated since 2025 and is now the main driver of divergence between trade blocs, although the gap between intra-bloc and inter-bloc trade narrowed through 2025 and into 2026.

Regional picture for 2026

The WTO expects merchandise exports to grow fastest in Asia (+9.9%), followed by North America (+5.7%), Africa (+5.6%) and South America (+3.4%). Europe is roughly flat (-0.1%), while exports fall 3.9% in the CIS and 17.2% in the Middle East (WTO).

Import growth is strongest in Asia (+9.5%), Africa (+8.9%) and the CIS (+8.8%). North America is at +1.4% and Europe at +0.5%, while Middle East imports drop 15.4% (WTO).

What the forecast depends on

Among the significant risks, the WTO cites (executive summary):

• the wedge between crude and refined oil prices, which erodes household purchasing power;
• a slowdown or reversal of AI spending, given its high import content.

The 2027 outlook depends on a timely resolution of the Middle East conflict. The WTO expects the conflict to weigh on trade in 2026 through higher energy prices and disruptions to transport routes (WTO press release).

Primary sources

• WTO: AI boom and trade resilience to Middle East crisis lift outlook, but gains to be uneven (8 October 2026)
• WTO: Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, executive summary
• Xinhua: WTO releases Global Trade Outlook (8 October 2026)

This material is for information only and does not constitute legal advice or customs consulting. Verify changes against the primary sources before acting.